Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1E 0x1e49…a273 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-2.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-6.1%	-15.1%	0%	0%	-15.1%
≤30d	1	-6.1%	-15.1%	0%	0%	-15.1%
≤90d	2	+8.3%	-2.0%	50%	50%	-11.2%
all	2	+8.3%	-2.0%	50%	50%	-11.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.0%	50%	-11.2%
10%	-11.4%	50%	-19.7%
15%	-19.9%	0%	-27.4%
20%	-27.8%	0%	-34.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$0

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage52d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Jun 18	$111	−$7	-6%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Apr 28	$19	+$4	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	SELL Yes	80¢	$104	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	BUY Yes	84¢	$111	24h
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	BUY Nuggets	81¢	$19	51d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.38 · official $99.38 (match) · 5 history records