Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e47…e461 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-13%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%31W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -21.4% -28.9% 40% 40% -19.8%
≤30d 77 -21.4% -28.9% 40% 40% -19.8%
≤90d 77 -21.4% -28.9% 40% 40% -19.8%
all 77 -21.4% -28.9% 40% 40% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 40% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.7% 40% -27.5%
15% -41.9% 40% -34.5%
20% -47.6% 40% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses31 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$10 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$8 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$13 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$12 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$10 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$25 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records