Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1E 0x1e47…3348 crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,113 (-23%) realized −$2,113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$580per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,584
7 days−$3,584
14 days−$3,584
30 days−$2,581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,894
crypto 47% −$685
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -49.0% -53.8% 29% 29% -53.6%
≤30d 16 -35.5% -41.7% 31% 31% -38.3%
≤90d 16 -35.5% -41.7% 31% 31% -38.3%
all 16 -35.5% -41.7% 31% 31% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 31% -38.3%
10% -47.3% 31% -44.2%
15% -52.3% 31% -49.6%
20% -57.0% 25% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$531 vs −$476 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage16d
Avg bet$580
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,695 −$457 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $538 −$500 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $537 −$500 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $337 −$337 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $536 +$379 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $509 +$434 +85%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $482 −$482 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $926 +$835 +90%
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $1,053 −$1,053 -100%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 17 $955 −$955 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $758 +$1,004 +132%
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska Jun 03 $7 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $633 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $538 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1,074 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,062 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $537 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $225 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $311 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $88 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $249 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $218 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $262 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $412 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $426 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $500 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $482 6h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 34¢ $431 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 100¢ $1,761 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 39¢ $751 14d
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,053 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 36¢ $6 15d
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska SELL Chwalinska 39¢ $6 15d
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska BUY Chwalinska 41¢ $7 15d
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 62¢ $955 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records