Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e46…5737 sports 604 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,825 (-9%) realized −$7,824 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate49%318W / 332L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day56.8pace
Fees−$952est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$3,874
other 9% −$1,105
crypto 1% −$44
world 0% −$7
politics 0% −$7
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -44.2% -49.5% 39% 17% -46.5%
≤30d 316 -26.2% -33.3% 45% 18% -28.7%
≤90d 650 -19.0% -26.7% 49% 26% -20.6%
all 650 -19.0% -26.7% 49% 26% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 26% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 16% -28.2%
15% -40.1% 11% -35.1%
20% -46.0% 8% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$60 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,824
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses318 / 332
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$952
Open positions1
Markets (closed)650 / 604
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$145
Trades / day56.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Hornets Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Kings vs. Raptors Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Xinyu Wang vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Donna Vekic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 17 $52 −$56 -108%
Credit One Charleston Open: Mayar Sherif vs Yue Yuan Jun 17 $1,957 −$5,015 -256%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Dominika Salkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5 Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Barcelona Open: Martin Landaluce vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 17 $29 −$26 -90%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alexei Popyrin vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $540 −$540 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 17 $314 −$314 -100%
Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Jun 17 $575 −$575 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 17 $0 −$18 -7931%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Jun 17 $663 −$462 -70%
Credit One Charleston Open: Polina Kudermetova vs Oleksandra Oliynykov Jun 17 $671 −$624 -93%
Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $259 −$233 -90%
FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-19? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik Jun 17 $41 −$31 -77%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Brandon Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Jun 17 $182 −$182 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$12 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $94 +$6 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $77 +$10 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $87 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $77 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $94 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $44 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $9 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $19 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $20 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $11 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $11 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $0 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $373 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $265 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 51¢ $7 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $97 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 84¢ $67 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $17 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $66 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $54 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 3500 history records