Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e41…46c4 other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$600 (+0%) realized +$600 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%26W / 92L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$1,024per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$514
politics 36% −$53
sports 10% +$137
world 2% −$3
economics 1% −$2
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 118 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 12% -9.1%
10% -18.6% 12% -17.8%
15% -26.5% 10% -25.7%
20% -33.7% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,276) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$10 · ×5.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$600
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses26 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,024
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $4,729 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $3,221 −$4 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $649 +$4 +1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $557 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $937 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,236 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4,225 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,272 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,685 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $698 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,322 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $318 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $412 +$1 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $432 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $411 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $392 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,826 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $2,552 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,882 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,851 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,831 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,028 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $6,470 −$6 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,115 −$3 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $3,773 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $4,740 −$5 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $684 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $729 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $659 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $660 3h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $785 20h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $787 24h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $556 25h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $557 28h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $555 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $555 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $550 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $551 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $551 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $552 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $558 8d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $559 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $556 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $557 9d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $649 11d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $936 13d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $937 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,210 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,212 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,207 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,209 15d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,110 15d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,112 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 20d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 21d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,113 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 403 history records