Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e3f…e00b other 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (426 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28,376 (+13%) realized +$28,368 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate76%34W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$3,290per market
Trades / day426.3pace
Fees−$1,376est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$9,609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$641
sports 23% +$1,326
crypto 5% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (426 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -2.8% -12.1% 80% 5% -8.3%
≤30d 45 -2.6% -11.9% 76% 4% -8.4%
≤90d 45 -2.6% -11.9% 76% 4% -8.4%
all 45 -2.6% -11.9% 76% 4% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover426.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 4% -8.4%
10% -20.3% 0% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -28.0% 0% -25.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,865) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$74 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$9,609
Realized+$28,368
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses34 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1,376
Open positions22
Markets (closed)45 / 65
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$3,290
Trades / day426.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $2,100 $2,085 −$15 (-1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 82¢ 83¢ $1,500 $1,509 +$10 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $882 $879 −$4 (-0%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 40¢ $780 $790 +$10 (+1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $760 $745 −$15 (-2%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $660 $665 +$5 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $664 $656 −$8 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $573 $555 −$18 (-3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $355 $367 +$12 (+3%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $354 $356 +$2 (+1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $231 $239 +$7 (+3%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $195 $202 +$8 (+4%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $154 $166 +$12 (+8%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $149 $153 +$4 (+2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $112 $113 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $0 −$40 -66602%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 20 $0 −$398 -107008%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8,407 +$14 +0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $920 +$68 +7%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,792 +$37 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $973 +$142 +15%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $500 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15,525 +$20 +0%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5,718 +$114 +2%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $188 +$6 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $504 +$23 +5%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,920 −$105 -4%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,360 +$20 +2%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4,903 +$45 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,732 +$85 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4,865 +$5 +0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $840 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,950 −$30 -2%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $760 +$20 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $991 +$9 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,100 +$31 +2%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $520 +$40 +8%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $830 +$9 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,605 +$79 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $825 −$60 -7%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,610 +$20 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36,174 +$39 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $90 +$3 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4,930 +$30 +1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $266 +$16 +6%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $255 +$20 +8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10,072 +$182 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $9,138 +$1,174 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,680 −$30 -2%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $930 $0 -0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,830 −$7 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,160 −$70 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,760 $0 -0%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 17m
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 87¢ $7 29m
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 31m
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 66¢ $660 34m
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $780 37m
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $98 42m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 46m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $68 48m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 48m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $189 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,995 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $576 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,990 2h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $30 2h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 87¢ $348 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $375 2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,223 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $300 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $479 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,608.58 · official $9,608.87 (match) · 3500 history records