Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:36:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e3f…675c weather 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,075 (+1%) realized +$2,931 · open +$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%168W / 8L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,411per market
Trades / day75.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$17,888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$102
14 days+$1,341
30 days−$1,416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$452
other 5% +$328
finance 4% +$917
sports 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -1.8% -11.2% 97% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 120 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 176 +1.1% -8.5% 95% 3% -9.3%
all 176 +1.1% -8.5% 95% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.3% 1% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$3,079) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$897 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$17,888
Realized+$2,931
Unrealized+$144
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses168 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)176 / 180
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$3,411
Trades / day75.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $11,676 $11,715 +$39 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,331 $3,370 +$39 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $2,628 $2,697 +$69 (+3%)
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 26? Down 99¢ 95¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 26 $2,895 +$23 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $424 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,296 +$9 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $82 −$63 -77%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1,136 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 24? Jun 25 $279 +$2 +1%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $399 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 24 $2,857 +$18 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1,512 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23? Jun 24 $413 +$8 +2%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 23 $2,028 +$6 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1,661 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? Jun 23 $253 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 22 $209 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 22 $1,440 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 22 $3,079 +$19 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Jun 22 $740 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 22 $342 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 22 $7,523 +$15 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Jun 22 $4,769 +$15 +0%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2,951 +$8 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 20 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $355 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1,009 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $383 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $43 $0 +1%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5,103 +$50 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1,303 +$64 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $311 +$15 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $133 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 Jun 16 $333 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $965 +$10 +1%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $234 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $545 +$39 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5,196 +$27 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8,778 +$26 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $12,191 +$38 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2,176 +$11 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $448 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $75 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $93 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $42 4m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $43 4m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $21 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $83 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $20 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $16 19m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $27 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $133 26m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $32 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 30m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $46 33m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 33m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 34m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $20 34m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 34m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $61 34m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $250 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $3 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $129 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $30 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $30 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,888.31 · official $17,882.75 (match) · 3500 history records