Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

1E 0x1e3e…ee89 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$307 (+30%) realized +$307 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate64%9W / 5L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$33

7 days+$338

14 days+$338

30 days+$337

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+6.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+3.9%	-6.0%	70%	40%	+24.4%
≤30d	12	-1.8%	-11.2%	67%	42%	+23.7%
≤90d	12	-1.8%	-11.2%	67%	42%	+23.7%
all	14	+18.1%	+6.9%	64%	43%	+23.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.9%	43%	+23.6%
10%	-3.3%	36%	+11.8%
15%	-12.7%	29%	+1.0%
20%	-21.2%	21%	-8.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 67% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +58% → late -22% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$59 vs −$38 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$307

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses9 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage166d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	No	41¢	42¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$100	+$9	+9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	+$27	+27%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$30	−$30	-99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia?	Jun 18	$100	+$8	+8%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$51	−$51	-100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$102	+$103	+101%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$20	+20%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?	Jun 17	$204	+$351	+172%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$15	$0	+1%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League	May 24	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	May 21	$10	+$4	+37%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5	Jan 09	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	Jan 04	$1	+$4	+376%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	41¢	$5	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	59¢	$99	1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia?	SELL No	100¢	$110	1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia?	BUY No	91¢	$100	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	80¢	$128	2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	2h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY No	44¢	$102	18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	72¢	$30	28h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia?	BUY No	92¢	$100	42h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$102	2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY No	56¢	$51	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	86¢	$46	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	86¢	$75	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?	SELL No	100¢	$555	2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?	BUY No	36¢	$204	2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	55¢	$15	3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$15	3d
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	26d
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	31¢	$3	162d
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League	BUY Yes	82¢	$5	164d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	73¢	$10	164d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	165d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	166d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.06 · official $5.06 (match) · 30 history records