Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1E 0x1e3e…fab8 world 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 60L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$9
politics 19% +$1
other 19% −$1
sports 10% +$11
crypto 5% +$1
economics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 23 +72.1% +55.7% 39% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 73 +22.5% +10.9% 29% 4% -9.3%
all 96 +19.9% +8.5% 38% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 5% -8.9%
10% -1.9% 4% -17.6%
15% -11.3% 3% -25.6%
20% -20.0% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage530d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $50 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $54 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $191 +$9 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $167 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$2 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $31 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $54 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $8 −$2 -21%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $19 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $56 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $6 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $83 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $26 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $44 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $58 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $62 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $2 $0 -8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 09 $58 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $54 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $22 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $45 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $23 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $53 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.38 · official $50.37 (match) · 413 history records