Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e3d…34ef sports 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-0%) realized −$148 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%86W / 72L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$180est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$10
14 days+$1,267
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$801
other 11% +$1,056
world 7% −$56
politics 4% −$28
crypto 3% −$185
tech 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +17.0% +5.8% 66% 63% -9.3%
≤30d 76 +2.0% -7.7% 64% 58% -9.5%
≤90d 96 -4.3% -13.4% 62% 57% -7.5%
all 158 -7.1% -16.0% 54% 49% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 49% -9.4%
10% -24.0% 37% -18.1%
15% -31.4% 30% -26.0%
20% -38.1% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$129 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses86 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 162
History coverage633d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 100¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$40 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 +$31 +44%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$45 +114%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $60 +$34 +56%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $19 +$30 +156%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$19 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $29 +$19 +64%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $34 +$19 +55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$25 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $27 +$31 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $32 +$37 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $130 +$52 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 +$27 +79%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$28 +140%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $412 −$408 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $162 −$159 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,683 +$165 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $96 +$104 +108%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,374 +$424 +31%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $590 +$269 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $1,652 +$535 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $783 +$116 +15%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $2,150 +$123 +6%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $502 +$72 +14%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $569 −$414 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $92 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $51 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $51 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $96 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $149 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 39h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $51 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $71 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $85 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 95¢ $93 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $40 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.94 · official $187.94 (match) · 399 history records