Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e3b…e3ba other 883 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,260 (-7%) realized −$15,264 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%311W / 570L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days−$34
14 days−$612
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$15,122
other 24% −$3,602
sports 2% +$1,470
weather 1% −$797
world 0% −$481
tech 0% +$1,214
politics 0% −$42
economics 0% +$72
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +12.2% +1.5% 25% 25% -10.9%
≤30d 60 -3.2% -12.5% 33% 32% -10.5%
≤90d 178 +4.6% -5.4% 36% 33% -12.2%
all 881 -11.6% -20.0% 35% 29% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 29% -17.4%
10% -27.7% 26% -25.3%
15% -34.7% 20% -32.5%
20% -41.1% 16% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$100 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$15,264
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses311 / 570
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)881 / 883
History coverage172d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 881 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $114 $122 +$8 (+7%)
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $148 −$53 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $220 −$69 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $399 −$67 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $408 −$30 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$2 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $213 −$25 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $81 +$14 +17%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$35 +336%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $48 −$21 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $36 −$5 -14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $46 −$4 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $13 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $180 +$221 +123%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $179 −$77 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $172 +$44 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $462 −$218 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $278 −$44 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $155 −$152 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $257 +$27 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $45 −$43 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $210 −$109 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $307 −$274 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $310 +$635 +205%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $259 −$230 -89%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $105 −$69 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $311 +$44 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $260 +$176 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $308 −$52 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $129 +$238 +184%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $217 +$166 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $129 −$4 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $180 +$118 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $257 +$159 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $166 +$42 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $152 −$138 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $83 −$33 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $62 −$61 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $136 +$54 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $155 −$39 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $304 −$3 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $507 −$7 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $95 29m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 29m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $68 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $118 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $148 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $90 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $131 22h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $131 22h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $113 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $201 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $68 26h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $101 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $247 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $142 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $152 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $159 30h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $95 30h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 32h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 33h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 33h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $41 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.52 · official $122.52 (match) · 2416 history records