Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e3b…b1cc world 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$343 (-3%) realized −$224 · open −$119
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%95W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$0
14 days+$30
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$135
other 20% +$95
crypto 12% −$46
sports 9% −$32
finance 6% −$285
tech 5% +$47
politics 3% −$162
culture 1% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -8.6% -17.3% 53% 33% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -11.3% -19.7% 59% 37% -6.5%
≤90d 60 -19.9% -27.6% 47% 27% -11.4%
all 181 -14.0% -22.2% 52% 34% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 34% -11.3%
10% -29.7% 15% -19.7%
15% -36.5% 12% -27.5%
20% -42.7% 8% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses95 / 86
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)181 / 191
History coverage515d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-50%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 61¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 72¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 30 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 30 $79 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $93 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $58 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 26 $2 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 26 $100 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $88 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $100 −$5 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$4 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$12 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$10 +49%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $20 +$4 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $100 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $170 +$51 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $10 +$2 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 13 $20 −$10 -48%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 13 $10 −$1 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $125 +$12 +10%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $100 +$6 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 04 $103 −$58 -56%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 01 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Trump say "Tax" 15+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $6 +$5 +75%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $218 +$4 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 25 $224 −$6 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 24 $296 +$3 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Apr 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.82 · official $29.82 (match) · 443 history records