Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:36:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1e3a…9e14
sports · 125 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$11,125 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,761 · open −$260
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25,992
Realized+$7,761
Unrealized−$260
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses48 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$672
Open positions60
Markets (closed)94 / 125
History coverage25d
Avg bet$976
Trades / day131.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 60 History 94 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$215
7 days+$387
14 days+$11,670
30 days+$7,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 93¢ 94¢ $3,217 $3,251 +$35 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 98¢ $2,799 $3,053 +$254 (+9%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 84¢ 89¢ $1,679 $1,780 +$101 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,103 $1,193 +$91 (+8%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $936 $1,190 +$254 (+27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $830 $978 +$149 (+18%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $925 $973 +$48 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $594 $850 +$257 (+43%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 51¢ 46¢ $846 $764 −$81 (-10%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $846 $762 −$85 (-10%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $750 −$250 (-25%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 68¢ 97¢ $476 $677 +$200 (+42%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $606 $596 −$10 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 96¢ 95¢ $551 $547 −$4 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $372 $534 +$162 (+44%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $461 $482 +$20 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 82¢ $386 $433 +$47 (+12%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $400 $425 +$25 (+6%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $552 $423 −$128 (-23%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 23¢ 27¢ $352 $411 +$60 (+17%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $372 $385 +$13 (+3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 68¢ 33¢ $711 $348 −$362 (-51%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $258 $346 +$88 (+34%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $329 $345 +$16 (+5%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 71¢ 85¢ $284 $340 +$56 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,129 −$247 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $4,709 −$55 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $657 +$43 +7%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $550 +$43 +8%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 10 $308 +$87 +28%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $399 +$1 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $971 +$29 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $430 +$70 +16%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1,653 +$149 +9%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $790 +$10 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $224 +$293 +131%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $960 +$40 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $136 −$22 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $80 −$78 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $377 +$23 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $28,796 +$2,563 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $891 +$1,809 +203%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2,513 +$189 +8%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $468 +$732 +156%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $2,058 +$119 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $1,302 +$798 +61%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $158 +$912 +577%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $922 +$1,473 +160%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $371 +$29 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,770 +$542 +31%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $340 +$260 +76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $456 +$253 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $670 +$30 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $640 −$640 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $1,984 +$1,216 +61%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $490 +$910 +186%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $1,995 +$1,505 +75%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $3,983 +$917 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $2,244 +$1,156 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $468 −$468 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $174 −$174 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $2,848 −$2,848 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 29 $310 −$310 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 29 $480 −$480 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 29 $130 −$130 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $550 +$1,650 +300%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,841 +$1,259 +68%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $546 +$754 +138%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $312 −$312 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens May 28 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $720 −$720 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler May 28 $506 −$506 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $768 −$768 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jenson Brooksby May 28 $432 −$432 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 35% −$30
world 25% +$3,031
crypto 24% +$4,988
other 14% −$1,528
politics 3% +$779
finance 0% +$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $96 19m
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 36¢ $108 3h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $763 3h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $53 3h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 3h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 4h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 4h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 4h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $175 4h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $27 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $228 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $210 6h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $439 7h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $170 7h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 94¢ $260 12h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 91¢ $191 14h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 91¢ $436 14h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 92¢ $736 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $111 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $224 18h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $382 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $329 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $245 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $320 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $279 29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.8% -5.2% 69% 19% -6.9%
≤30d 94 +5.1% -4.9% 51% 32% -2.8%
≤90d 94 +5.1% -4.9% 51% 32% -2.8%
all 94 +5.1% -4.9% 51% 32% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover131.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 32% -2.8%
10% -14.0% 30% -12.1%
15% ← realistic here -22.3% 27% -20.6%
20% -29.9% 27% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,992.15 · official $25,991.40 (match) · 3500 history records