Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e35…2614 sports 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,242 (-6%) realized −$8,764 · open +$522
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%114W / 97L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$605per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$1,710est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,822now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10,328
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -47.3% -52.3% 33% 33% -92.5%
≤90d 211 -13.5% -21.8% 54% 43% -18.2%
all 211 -13.5% -21.8% 54% 43% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 43% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 35% -26.0%
15% -36.1% 26% -33.2%
20% -42.4% 19% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$645) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$420 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$8,822
Realized−$8,764
Unrealized+$522
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses114 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,710
Open positions2
Markets (closed)211 / 213
History coverage61d
Avg bet$605
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 72¢ 100¢ $6,380 $8,820 +$2,440 (+38%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ 0¢ $1,920 $2 −$1,918 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 30 $185 −$184 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 28 $18 −$17 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $11 +$6 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $6 +$4 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 14 $193 −$189 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $593 −$590 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 13 $595 +$104 +18%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $1,054 −$373 -35%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 13 $2,156 −$1,934 -90%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 - Map 1 Winner May 13 $1,097 +$382 +35%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $1,744 −$1,714 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $1,781 +$306 +17%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner May 12 $1,593 +$155 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 12 $1,063 +$566 +53%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $686 +$334 +49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 12 $777 +$472 +61%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs VfB eSports (BO3) - Prime League 1st Di May 12 $703 +$66 +9%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG - Map 2 Winner May 12 $947 −$442 -47%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG - Map 1 Winner May 12 $880 +$103 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $732 −$719 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $1,087 +$521 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 12 $141 +$28 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $503 +$117 +23%
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega May 11 $141 +$43 +30%
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG - Map 2 Winner May 11 $222 −$219 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 11 $120 +$212 +177%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 10 $613 −$605 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nemiga (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri May 10 $83 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner May 10 $55 −$36 -65%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 10 $324 −$324 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $296 −$292 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner May 10 $206 −$204 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 10 $326 −$318 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 4 Winner May 10 $82 +$28 +35%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 10 $1,769 −$444 -25%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $1,038 +$136 +13%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 09 $999 +$39 +4%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 09 $607 +$379 +62%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 09 $455 −$445 -98%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 09 $847 −$582 -69%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner May 09 $160 −$156 -97%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner May 09 $758 −$745 -98%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner May 09 $1,032 −$1,030 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Pla May 09 $1,410 −$176 -12%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 2 Winner May 09 $2,226 +$19 +1%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs Zena Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs May 08 $32 +$23 +70%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 08 $477 −$470 -99%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri May 08 $2,090 +$2,426 +116%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner May 08 $552 −$361 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 88¢ $90 35m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 88¢ $7 35m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $337 35m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $5 35m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $33 36m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $970 36m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $5 36m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $162 36m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $199 37m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $49 37m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $1,245 37m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $5 37m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $90 37m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $253 38m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $49 38m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $18 38m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $10 38m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 61¢ $1,306 45m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 63¢ $1,582 46m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $5,672 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $1,044 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $4 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $6 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $87 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $4 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $4 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $174 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $1,639 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $1,367 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $450 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,821.83 · official $8,821.83 (match) · 1258 history records