Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e33…51b9 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$45 (+8%) realized +$43 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$44
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$29
world 10% +$5
politics 4% $0
sports 2% +$16
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.0% -11.4% 68% 47% -0.5%
≤30d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 61% 43% -0.4%
≤90d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 61% 43% -0.4%
all 23 +0.4% -9.2% 61% 43% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 43% -0.4%
10% -17.9% 13% -10.0%
15% -25.8% 13% -18.7%
20% -33.1% 13% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)23 / 30
History coverage29d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 91¢ 90¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+42%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$5 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$5 +80%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $56 +$3 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 +$8 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$8 +19%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 19 $21 $0 -1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$3 +18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 +$3 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +197%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $61 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $56 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 17¢ $5 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $3 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $55 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 30h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 43h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 44h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $56 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $48 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $40 2d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $17 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $17 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $16 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $14 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $12 5d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 18¢ $21 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $29 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.17 · official $90.17 (match) · 77 history records