Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

1E 0x1e31…cc7f other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$73 (+18%) realized +$72 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip

Net edge+55%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%6W / 6L

Drawdown47%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$61

7 days+$81

14 days+$69

30 days+$69

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+55.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+105.9%	+86.3%	60%	60%	+37.0%
≤30d	12	+71.6%	+55.2%	50%	50%	+27.4%
≤90d	12	+71.6%	+55.2%	50%	50%	+27.4%
all	12	+71.6%	+55.2%	50%	50%	+27.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+55.2%	50%	+27.4%
10%	+40.4%	50%	+15.2%
15%	+26.8%	50%	+4.1%
20%	+14.4%	50%	-6.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +72% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late +157% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$238

Realized+$72

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses6 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions9

Markets (closed)12 / 21

History coverage12d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown47%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$45	$45	−$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$44	$43	−$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	55¢	55¢	$21	$21	−$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	58¢	64¢	$18	$20	+$2 (+11%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	56¢	60¢	$17	$18	+$1 (+6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	56¢	56¢	$16	$16	+$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$13	$13	−$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	44¢	42¢	$13	$12	−$1 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$60	+$34	+57%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	+$14	+307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$4	+$14	+344%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 15	$6	$0	-8%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 15	$7	−$1	-8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$9	+$21	+250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$28	+$16	+55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$17	−$17	-99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 13	$16	−$15	-99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$6	+$16	+262%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 05	$6	−$6	-98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 05	$6	−$6	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$44	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$60	18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	27¢	$6	40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$46	40h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	23¢	$7	40h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$9	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$16	3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$7	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	58¢	$18	4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	56¢	$17	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$13	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$17	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	55¢	$21	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	44¢	$13	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	53¢	$16	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$28	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$6	10d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$4	10d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$6	11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	11d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$6	11d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$6	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.91 · official $237.91 (match) · 29 history records