Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e31…594b crypto 1519 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$299 · open −$291
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate91%1377W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$44
14 days−$8
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$65
politics 10% −$293
world 0% −$4
other 0% +$1
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 718 -3.3% -12.5% 91% 15% -10.2%
≤90d 1507 -0.7% -10.1% 91% 22% -9.7%
all 1507 -0.7% -10.1% 91% 22% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 22% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 4% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,077
Realized+$299
Unrealized−$291
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1377 / 130
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1507 / 1519
History coverage58d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1507 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 79¢ $500 $793 +$293 (+59%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 21¢ $500 $207 −$293 (-59%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $37 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,077.37 · official $1,077.37 (match) · 3347 history records