Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e2d…8ea1 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$960 (-80%) realized −$955 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$965
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$320 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$955
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage99d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $238 $233 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 20 $510 −$510 -100%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $191 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 98d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 98d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 98d
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 98d
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 98d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 98d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $500 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.15 · official $233.15 (match) · 9 history records