Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e2c…946f other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$12
politics 29% −$9
sports 15% +$40
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 59 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 105 +5.5% -4.6% 10% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -13.7% 4% -18.1%
15% -22.0% 4% -26.0%
20% -29.7% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×10.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage132d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $461 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $273 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $530 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $248 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $260 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $453 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $220 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $257 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 06 $240 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $387 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 05 $249 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $288 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $256 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $245 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $224 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $258 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $544 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 01 $443 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 01 $231 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 31 $485 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $491 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 30h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 30h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $213 28d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $214 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 55d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $245 63d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $245 65d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $241 65d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $241 66d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $240 66d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $240 66d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $227 67d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $227 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $197 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $197 67d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $273 68d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $273 68d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $248 68d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $248 68d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $238 69d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $238 69d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $276 69d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $276 69d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.95 · official $74.95 (match) · 302 history records