Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e2b…7763 crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+1%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%96W / 3L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$13
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 34 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 91 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -8.6%
all 99 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -8.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×15.68 per $1 lost it wins $15.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses96 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage111d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $104 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $161 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $159 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $156 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $154 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $149 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $145 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $140 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $76 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 16 $73 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $104 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $103 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $82 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $101 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $4 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $161 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $4 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $161 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $161 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $159 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $156 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $154 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $154 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $154 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $152 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $2 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $150 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $149 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $148 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $145 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $145 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $40 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 97¢ $140 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 91¢ $20 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $117 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $105 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 96¢ $30 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $104 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.57 · official $106.57 (match) · 201 history records