Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e2a…f0a6 crypto 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate61%60W / 38L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$858per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$13
14 days−$115
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$77
other 9% −$28
tech 5% −$6
world 5% −$4
finance 4% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% +$12
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 50% -15.2%
≤30d 12 -15.1% -23.2% 50% 17% -14.3%
≤90d 98 -6.3% -15.3% 61% 5% -9.6%
all 98 -6.3% -15.3% 61% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 5% -9.6%
10% -23.4% 5% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 4% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses60 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage77d
Avg bet$858
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 33¢ 32¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$51 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$36 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $457 −$26 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $486 −$22 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $406 −$21 -5%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $48 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 25 $201 +$5 +3%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $58,800 −$87 -0%
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs Anton Matusevich May 21 $10 $0 +2%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 19 $2,995 −$5 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 19 $4,120 −$5 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $250 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $2 $0 +10%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Rinky Hijikata May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Stade Brestois 29 (-2.5) May 18 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5) May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Le Havre AC (-2.5) May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on May 17? May 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 16 $2,730 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 16? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 15 $400 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $12 −$11 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 14 $4,400 −$4 -0%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 63°F or below on May 14? May 13 $40 $0 -0%
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5) May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election? May 12 $5 $0 -1%
2026 Balance of Power: Other May 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 59°F or below on May 13? May 12 $20 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Shabab Saudi Club (-2.5) May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will NAC Breda win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $41 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $34 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 32¢ $95 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $102 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 32¢ $95 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $102 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 32¢ $95 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $102 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $146 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 34¢ $143 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $153 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $175 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $182 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $146 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $40 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $193 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.50 · official $32.50 (match) · 433 history records