Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1E 0x1e29…677f other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$58 (+53%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$31
sports 23% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+52.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.1% +0.5% 33% 33% -1.5%
≤30d 3 +11.1% +0.5% 33% 33% -1.5%
≤90d 4 +53.5% +38.9% 50% 50% +23.4%
all 8 +68.6% +52.5% 75% 75% +35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.5% 75% +35.2%
10% +37.9% 75% +22.2%
15% +24.6% 75% +10.4%
20% +12.4% 75% -0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage127d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$3 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$29 +141%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $14 +$24 +181%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Feb 17 $18 +$18 +100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Feb 17 $5 +$4 +72%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Feb 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Feb 16 $1 +$1 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records