Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e29…740f world 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,562 (-19%) realized −$10,409 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$905per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$160
14 days−$194
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$6,228
crypto 16% −$2,943
politics 10% −$1,276
economics 1% −$96
other 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.4% -40.6% 29% 14% -21.2%
≤30d 14 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 21% -21.6%
≤90d 14 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 21% -21.6%
all 53 -38.2% -44.1% 28% 21% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 21% -26.9%
10% -49.5% 17% -33.9%
15% -54.4% 13% -40.3%
20% -58.8% 9% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$566) neutral
Persistence
early -35% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$647 vs −$530 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$2,451
Realized−$10,409
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)53 / 63
History coverage623d
Avg bet$905
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $810 $764 −$46 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $580 $555 −$25 (-4%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $406 $379 −$27 (-7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $321 $246 −$75 (-23%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $186 $194 +$8 (+4%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $137 $146 +$9 (+6%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 32¢ 35¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+9%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 81¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+40%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$14 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $171 −$54 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $900 +$41 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $36 −$19 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $61 −$11 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $60 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +152%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 20? Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Mar 18 $2,570 +$114 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 10 $186 −$21 -11%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Oct 02 $200 −$18 -9%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? Oct 01 $301 −$301 -100%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Apr 22 $261 −$255 -98%
Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? Dec 29 $1,681 −$1,681 -100%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Dec 29 $10,560 +$1,771 +17%
Will there be 175,000,000 or more votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Dec 19 $35 −$34 -97%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 19 $67 −$67 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Dec 17 $566 −$325 -58%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 in December? Dec 17 $500 −$66 -13%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Dec 16 $105 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? Dec 13 $1,844 +$16 +1%
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December? Dec 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 04 $1 +$1 +75%
No Solana all time high in 2024? Nov 26 $199 −$199 -100%
Solana all time high in Q4? Nov 26 $213 −$213 -100%
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024? Nov 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8? Nov 08 $285 +$254 +89%
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? Nov 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Nov 07 $706 −$500 -71%
Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader? Nov 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? Nov 03 $128 −$128 -100%
Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? Nov 03 $751 −$751 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? Nov 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump tweet 60-69 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? Nov 01 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Trump tweet 70-79 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? Nov 01 $795 +$371 +47%
Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? Oct 31 $124 +$32 +25%
Israel military action against Iraq before November? Oct 29 $4,558 −$712 -16%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $1,072 +$44 +4%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 17 $1,146 −$928 -81%
Israel military response against Iran in October? Oct 10 $298 +$141 +47%
Ethereum above $2,400 on October 11? Oct 10 $500 −$40 -8%
Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 11? Oct 10 $500 −$67 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 39m
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $37 44m
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 47m
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 1h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $44 1h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $321 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $580 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $540 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 42h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 6¢ $117 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,451.07 · official $2,451.08 (match) · 600 history records