Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e28…95b3 crypto 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%73W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day45.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -12.5% -20.9% 49% 46% -14.7%
≤30d 148 -12.5% -20.9% 49% 46% -14.7%
≤90d 148 -12.5% -20.9% 49% 46% -14.7%
all 148 -12.5% -20.9% 49% 46% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 46% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 41% -22.9%
15% -35.4% 34% -30.3%
20% -41.7% 24% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses73 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 335 history records