Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e20…a1aa sports 557 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$801 (+1%) realized +$798 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate77%428W / 128L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day51.8pace
Fees−$443est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,068
7 days+$1,380
14 days+$1,208
30 days+$901
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$495
other 5% −$111
tech 2% +$217
crypto 1% −$32
world 1% −$80
weather 1% −$37
finance 0% −$64
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 79% 29% -4.9%
≤30d 379 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 27% -8.6%
≤90d 556 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 26% -9.1%
all 556 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 26% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 26% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 12% -17.8%
15% -28.0% 6% -25.7%
20% -35.1% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$56 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$798
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses428 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$443
Open positions1
Markets (closed)556 / 557
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$185
Trades / day51.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 556 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Minnesota Lynx 97¢ 100¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$1 +1%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $60 +$6 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $502 +$44 +9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $651 +$86 +13%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $482 +$85 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,226 +$174 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $87 +$14 +16%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $674 +$16 +2%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 17 $51 −$6 -12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $192 +$18 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,694 +$366 +22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $323 +$27 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $313 −$36 -12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $192 +$18 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $369 −$37 -10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,907 +$293 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $14 −$3 -21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $70 +$8 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,689 +$266 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $463 +$37 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,313 +$301 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $903 −$511 -56%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $923 +$103 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$9 -28%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $800 +$8 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $140 +$19 +13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $651 −$150 -23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $130 +$8 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $250 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $960 +$372 +39%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $555 −$237 -43%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $291 +$22 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $820 +$58 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $451 −$294 -65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $351 +$23 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $541 −$19 -4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $60 +$13 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 −$45 -89%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$47 +58%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 14 $200 +$8 +4%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 14 $232 +$22 +10%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 14 $461 +$43 +9%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $501 +$36 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $152 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 96¢ $50 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 86¢ $66 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 67¢ $20 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 97¢ $50 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 85¢ $10 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 84¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $45 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $96 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $176 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $65 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $24 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $90 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $9 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $31 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $61 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $201 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $51 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $200 10h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $101 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $90 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $91 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $92 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $94 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $69 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.10 · official $103.10 (match) · 3405 history records