Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1E 0x1e1f…7661 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,406 (+18%) realized +$1,415 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%75W / 47L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$408
7 days−$70
14 days+$665
30 days+$1,389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,385
other 2% +$25
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +13.3% +2.5% 57% 57% -12.5%
≤30d 122 +17.2% +6.1% 61% 61% +7.1%
≤90d 122 +17.2% +6.1% 61% 61% +7.1%
all 122 +17.2% +6.1% 61% 61% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 61% +7.1%
10% -4.1% 61% -3.2%
15% -13.4% 61% -12.5%
20% -21.8% 57% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$58 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized+$1,415
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses75 / 47
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage25d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Rybakina 64¢ 62¢ $148 $143 −$6 (-4%)
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Raphael Collignon 53¢ 52¢ $104 $102 −$2 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Madison Keys 51¢ 50¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$25 +124%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $27 +$23 +86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$23 +93%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $103 +$117 +114%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $150 +$93 +62%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 +$29 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$25 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$21 +85%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $52 +$41 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $50 +$60 +119%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$35 +172%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$14 +47%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $93 −$92 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $105 −$104 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $125 +$96 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $100 +$73 +73%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $72 −$71 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$22 +165%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $45 +$37 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $71 +$93 +131%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $102 −$101 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $102 −$101 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $65 −$64 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $45 +$56 +124%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$48 +158%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $110 −$109 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 11 $75 −$74 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $139 +$130 +94%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $30 +$30 +101%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $30 +$33 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $30 +$34 +114%
Jovic vs. Eala: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $53 +$49 +92%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $31 +$42 +136%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $37 +$30 +82%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 +$232 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $50 +$20 +39%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $33 −$32 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 53¢ $105 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 51¢ $104 1h
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Rybakina 64¢ $3 1h
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Rybakina 64¢ $147 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 9h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 54¢ $50 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 26h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $103 26h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 61¢ $148 27h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 60¢ $2 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $25 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $43 29h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 57¢ $2 40h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 56¢ $50 2d
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 55¢ $50 2d
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 45¢ $50 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $25 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $22 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $46 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $105 3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 59¢ $75 3d
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 57¢ $72 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.64 · official $346.64 (match) · 264 history records