Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1E 0x1e1f…c855 world 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$471,965 (+28%) realized +$361,338 · open +$110,627
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate27%62W / 169L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,659per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$537,867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$30,342
other 30% +$164,095
crypto 11% +$7,282
politics 6% −$58,639
economics 5% +$1,955
finance 3% −$9,100
tech 1% −$993
culture 1% −$2,090
sports 0% +$1,256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -57.5% -61.5% 12% 10% -26.1%
≤30d 143 -48.8% -53.7% 18% 13% -6.8%
≤90d 198 -46.3% -51.4% 26% 16% -11.9%
all 231 -45.5% -50.7% 27% 16% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.7% 16% -9.8%
10% -55.4% 12% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -59.7% 11% -26.3%
20% -63.7% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$2,681) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,591 vs −$1,081 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$537,867
Realized+$361,338
Unrealized+$110,627
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses62 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions82
Markets (closed)231 / 172
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$9,659
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 82 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 49¢ 33¢ $161,334 $109,958 −$51,376 (-32%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 24¢ $1,165 $71,622 +$70,456 (+6047%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $60,332 $62,478 +$2,146 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 83¢ 85¢ $60,482 $61,933 +$1,451 (+2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $33,934 $37,658 +$3,724 (+11%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 7¢ $1,304 $20,548 +$19,245 (+1476%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 56¢ 60¢ $8,949 $9,509 +$559 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $9,200 $9,200 +$0 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 44¢ $9,273 $8,769 −$504 (-5%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $1,197 $8,664 +$7,467 (+624%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 65¢ 99¢ $5,074 $7,763 +$2,688 (+53%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $1,197 $7,146 +$5,948 (+497%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $1,205 $6,273 +$5,069 (+421%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $1,256 $6,220 +$4,965 (+395%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $1,197 $5,320 +$4,123 (+345%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $4,870 $5,087 +$217 (+4%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1,245 $4,584 +$3,339 (+268%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $4,710 $4,209 −$501 (-11%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1,197 $4,106 +$2,908 (+243%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1,197 $3,800 +$2,603 (+218%)
Trump on $250 bill this year? No 90¢ 92¢ $3,534 $3,593 +$59 (+2%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1,197 $3,192 +$1,995 (+167%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1,236 $2,983 +$1,747 (+141%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1,213 $2,927 +$1,714 (+141%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1,197 $2,888 +$1,691 (+141%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 29? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Megaquake by August 31? Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 28? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 7? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 8? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Jun 15 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 15 $1,929 −$1,929 -100%
Bears vs. 49ers Jun 15 $185 −$185 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9? Jun 15 $208 −$208 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 15 $225 −$90 -40%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Jun 15 $3,030 −$3,024 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 25? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%? Jun 15 $1,318 −$1,318 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 15 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%? Jun 15 $1,318 −$1,318 -100%
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 15 $610 −$610 -100%
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 15 $329 −$329 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 10PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,599 −$1,599 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Jun 15 $1,478 −$1,478 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 15 $347 −$340 -98%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the America Bu Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 3? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Jun 15 $241 −$241 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 15 $74 +$42 +56%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 15 $1 +$205 +18557%
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31? Jun 15 $1,297 −$1,297 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 15 $329 −$329 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 31? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Jun 15 $630 −$630 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jun 15 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 9? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $578 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $4,095 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $3,280 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,411 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $11,223 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $44 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $74 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $79 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $82 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $82 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,606 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,230 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $2,463 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $38 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $2,468 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $57 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $59 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $24 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537,866.75 · official $537,867.32 (match) · 3500 history records