Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e18…0782 crypto 50 markets active 6d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$20 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate96%44W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$2
world 16% $0
weather 9% +$4
finance 5% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 4% +$1
other 4% +$4
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 41 +3.8% -6.1% 98% 7% -8.7%
all 46 +3.4% -6.4% 96% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 7% -8.8%
10% -15.4% 2% -17.5%
15% -23.6% 2% -25.5%
20% -31.1% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.31 per $1 lost it wins $12.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses44 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage103d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 48¢ 84¢ $5 $8 +$4 (+75%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 5? Jun 10 $98 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 23? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 25? Jun 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 22 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 10? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $75 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 10 $15 −$2 -10%
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 09 $27 $0 +1%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May May 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on May 6? May 07 $35 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? May 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? Apr 29 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 25? Apr 26 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 22? Apr 23 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on April 1 Apr 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 17? Apr 20 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 14? Apr 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 10? Apr 12 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6? Apr 08 $13 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 5? Apr 08 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 4? Apr 06 $1 +$1 +91%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 4? Apr 06 $135 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 04 $136 $0 +0%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Mar 29 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 22 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 17? Mar 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C or below on March 17? Mar 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 22 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 07 $94 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $74 25d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $28 25d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $88 35d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 35d
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 35d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $14 36d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $15 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $75 37d
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? BUY No 99¢ $27 40d
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May BUY No 100¢ $39 40d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $35 42d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $13 42d
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $13 42d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $11 42d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 42d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 42d
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? BUY No 100¢ $11 42d
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 42d
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $13 47d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $12 47d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $70 47d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 47d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $88 51d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 51d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap BUY No 100¢ $12 52d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 53d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.25 · official $134.25 (match) · 95 history records