Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e16…4062 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-6%) realized −$59 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate74%43W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$43
other 7% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -44.2% -49.6% 50% 50% -52.0%
≤30d 58 -9.5% -18.1% 74% 38% -16.2%
≤90d 58 -9.5% -18.1% 74% 38% -16.2%
all 58 -9.5% -18.1% 74% 38% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 38% -16.2%
10% -25.9% 16% -24.2%
15% -33.1% 7% -31.5%
20% -39.7% 3% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$19 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses43 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage27d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 18¢ $46 $12 −$34 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $38 −$37 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 28 $25 −$23 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 28 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 28 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 28 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 27 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 27 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 27 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 27 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 25 $10 −$3 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 25 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $3 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 25 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 25 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 25 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 25 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 25 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 25 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 25 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 25 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 24 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 24 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 24 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 24 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 24 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 24 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 24 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 24 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 24 $26 +$28 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $46 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 26¢ $38 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $7 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 25d
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.89 · official $12.57 (match) · 118 history records