Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e10…8a05 crypto 517 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$58 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate82%423W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$23
sports 16% −$24
other 8% −$24
tech 2% −$25
finance 1% −$5
world 1% −$10
politics 1% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.7% -16.5% 90% 10% -11.8%
≤30d 25 +3.0% -6.8% 96% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 167 -2.1% -11.4% 94% 4% -13.9%
all 514 -1.4% -10.8% 82% 25% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 25% -11.0%
10% -19.3% 13% -19.5%
15% -27.1% 8% -27.3%
20% -34.3% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses423 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)514 / 517
History coverage205d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 92¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+25%)
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 95¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+11%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 94¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 21 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 20 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 20 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 20 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 20 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $3 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 11 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 10 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 10 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 10 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 10 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 10 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 10 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.05 · official $47.05 (match) · 1281 history records