Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e0e…c012 crypto 1549 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate94%1445W / 99L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$17
weather 16% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 159 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 1544 -0.0% -9.6% 94% 13% -9.4%
all 1544 -0.0% -9.6% 94% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 13% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 5% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1445 / 99
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1544 / 1549
History coverage86d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 7? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 9? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 10 Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.84 · official $24.93 (match) · 3228 history records