Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1E 0x1e0a…e207 sports 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$130 (-3%) realized −$160 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%152W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$330
7 days−$209
14 days−$246
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$122
crypto 4% −$30
other 3% −$38
world 2% +$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -17.7% -25.6% 44% 35% -17.3%
≤30d 262 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 39% -14.2%
≤90d 292 -8.6% -17.3% 52% 38% -13.4%
all 292 -8.6% -17.3% 52% 38% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 38% -13.4%
10% -25.2% 34% -21.7%
15% -32.5% 28% -29.3%
20% -39.1% 20% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses152 / 140
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions1
Markets (closed)292 / 293
History coverage80d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 62¢ 84¢ $88 $118 +$30 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $169 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +128%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $72 +$46 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $71 +$27 +39%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $10 −$6 -58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -47%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 +$11 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $54 +$106 +195%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$42 +42%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $67 +$69 +103%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$14 -89%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $67 +$30 +45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $83 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $22 +$26 +118%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $111 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $20 +$26 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $53 +$44 +83%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $38 −$12 -31%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $44 +$25 +55%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $51 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $40 −$16 -40%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $21 −$19 -90%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$46 -91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 +$53 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 62¢ $89 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 24¢ $19 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 75¢ $15 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 38¢ $30 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 52¢ $10 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 49¢ $32 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 56¢ $0 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 45¢ $30 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 57¢ $94 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 50¢ $8 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 57¢ $9 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 53¢ $89 3h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 38¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 63¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $93 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $25 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $52 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $35 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Los Angeles Sparks 3¢ $4 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $36 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 89¢ $46 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 6¢ $10 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.76 · official $117.76 (match) · 897 history records