Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1E 0x1e0a…f994 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$18 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$47
other 10% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 67% +1.3%
≤30d 3 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 67% +1.3%
≤90d 3 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 67% +1.3%
all 3 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 67% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 67% +1.3%
10% -7.9% 0% -8.4%
15% -16.8% 0% -17.2%
20% -24.9% 0% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Inner Circle Esports 65¢ 58¢ $245 $219 −$26 (-11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 70¢ 86¢ $98 $120 +$22 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $239 +$9 +4%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $196 +$43 +22%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $175 +$21 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 65¢ $207 33m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 65¢ $5 33m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 65¢ $28 34m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 65¢ $6 34m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $248 35m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 96¢ $239 55m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 81¢ $0 56m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 80¢ $1 57m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 80¢ $237 57m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 80¢ $1 57m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 65¢ $196 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $196 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Sashi Esport 98¢ $99 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Sashi Esport 79¢ $75 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 70¢ $99 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.93 · official $329.50 · 15 history records