Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e08…9779 crypto 664 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,739 (-14%) realized −$1,650 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%417W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$192
7 days−$62
14 days−$1,949
30 days−$2,046
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1,550
crypto 39% −$550
other 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.7% -8.0% 61% 55% -13.1%
≤30d 655 -4.9% -14.0% 63% 55% -24.2%
≤90d 660 -5.0% -14.0% 63% 55% -24.2%
all 660 -5.0% -14.0% 63% 55% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 55% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 41% -31.4%
15% -29.8% 28% -38.1%
20% -36.6% 10% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$1,650
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses417 / 243
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions4
Markets (closed)660 / 664
History coverage61d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 57¢ 42¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 57¢ 42¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 39¢ 6¢ $39 $6 −$32 (-83%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 38¢ 2¢ $39 $3 −$36 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$43 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$54 +132%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$38 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$43 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$30 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$10 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$17 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$21 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $110 −$41 -38%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +91%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $29 +$24 +84%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $37 +$28 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $7 +$7 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $100 +$96 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $15 +$19 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $28 +$25 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $89 −$89 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $108 −$108 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $83 −$83 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $53 +$49 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $17 +$14 +83%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $515 +$376 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $1,324 −$1,023 -77%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $76 +$90 +118%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $41 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $41 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $40 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $40 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $41 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $41 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $40 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.71 · official $180.21 · 1856 history records