Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e06…dc4a other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%16W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$431per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$2,051now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$35
crypto 23% +$5
world 17% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 18 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 0% -9.1%
all 18 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×35.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×285.36 per $1 lost it wins $285.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$2,051
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses16 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage60d
Avg bet$431
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,723 $1,736 +$13 (+1%)
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $104 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $294 +$4 +2%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $309 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $302 +$8 +3%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 23 $297 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 20 $1,681 +$5 +0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 18 $327 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $245 +$10 +4%
MegaETH FDV above $3B one day after launch? May 01 $55 $0 +0%
MegaETH FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? May 01 $505 $0 +0%
MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch? May 01 $1,234 +$3 +0%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $119 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 30 $152 +$2 +1%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $1,845 +$4 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $150 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $298 19h
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $148 19h
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $146 19h
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 19h
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $231 19h
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $92 2d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 5d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 5d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $309 6d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $302 19d
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 100¢ $300 29d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? SELL No 100¢ $298 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,723 32d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $714 32d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $32 32d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $26 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $60 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $27 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $50 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $32 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $35 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $689 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,051.21 · official $2,051.21 (match) · 62 history records