Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e05…9afa sports 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$88 (+3%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%75W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day67.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$38
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$162
crypto 9% −$91
other 3% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +5.6% -4.4% 41% 36% -10.6%
≤30d 170 +7.6% -2.7% 44% 39% -9.9%
≤90d 170 +7.6% -2.7% 44% 39% -9.9%
all 170 +7.6% -2.7% 44% 39% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 39% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.0% 33% -18.5%
15% -20.5% 31% -26.4%
20% -28.3% 26% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses75 / 95
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage11d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day67.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$9 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$11 +54%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -71%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $6 +$1 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $21 −$1 -3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $10 −$3 -29%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $15 −$1 -7%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $15 −$3 -22%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $15 +$23 +146%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +56%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 +$13 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 887 history records