Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1E 0x1e00…1a29 other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$496 (-4%) realized −$497 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%47W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$796
7 days+$853
14 days−$465
30 days−$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$289
sports 41% −$254
world 1% +$89
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.1% +1.4% 58% 58% +20.1%
≤30d 23 -7.0% -15.8% 52% 52% -19.8%
≤90d 30 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 50% -22.7%
all 81 -8.2% -17.0% 58% 57% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 57% -13.2%
10% -24.9% 53% -21.5%
15% -32.2% 41% -29.1%
20% -38.8% 27% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$120 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$497
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses47 / 34
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage190d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $182 $184 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $67 +$70 +105%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Jun 29 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $502 +$527 +105%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $301 +$202 +67%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $958 +$436 +46%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $250 −$248 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $81 −$80 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $49 +$32 +64%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$68 +67%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $49 +$47 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $201 +$64 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $698 −$687 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $699 −$695 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $70 −$69 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $158 −$157 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$57 +57%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $102 +$111 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $398 +$157 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $258 −$255 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $165 +$94 +57%
Will PFK CSKA Moskva win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $194 −$193 -99%
Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $111 +$83 +74%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $149 +$62 +41%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $164 −$163 -99%
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $100 +$64 +64%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $191 −$191 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $72 +$7 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $359 +$113 +31%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $103 +$75 +72%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $100 +$81 +82%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.5 Feb 24 $136 +$43 +31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $90 +$42 +47%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $32 −$5 -15%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $34 +$29 +86%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 18 $64 +$30 +47%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $29 +$35 +122%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Feb 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Feb 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $184 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Morocco 40¢ $47 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 41¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $67 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,029 40h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $502 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $503 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $301 45h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $100 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,394 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $958 5d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $250 6d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 78¢ $81 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $81 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $49 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $101 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $169 6d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $96 6d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $49 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $101 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $265 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $201 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $499 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $699 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $199 9d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $70 9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $158 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.74 · official $183.74 (match) · 134 history records