Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e00…df7f world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%31W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$12
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$12
sports 25% +$7
other 20% $0
politics 12% +$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 -0.7% -10.1% 23% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 50 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 89 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses31 / 58
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage300d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $139 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $77 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $145 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $146 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $76 −$7 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $155 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $80 −$3 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $77 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $166 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $88 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $127 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $170 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $89 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $107 −$3 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $88 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $27 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $92 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $128 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $91 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $3 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $87 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $7 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $82 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $268 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $620 +$3 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $59 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $619 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $652 +$4 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $21 +$2 +7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $676 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $122 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $153 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $20 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $50 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $70 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $77 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $77 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $70 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $70 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $69 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $69 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $69 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $69 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $63 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $68 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $70 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $69 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 84¢ $69 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $76 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $52 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 351 history records