Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e00…cd8f crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,381 (+18%) realized +$2,329 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%36W / 39L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$1,525
14 days+$1,525
30 days+$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$3,261
other 29% +$311
crypto 18% −$1,109
world 1% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +35.6% +22.7% 50% 44% +31.7%
≤30d 26 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 35% +0.4%
≤90d 75 +0.0% -9.5% 48% 43% +7.3%
all 75 +0.0% -9.5% 48% 43% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 43% +7.3%
10% -18.2% 40% -3.0%
15% -26.1% 36% -12.4%
20% -33.3% 31% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$113 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$1,230
Realized+$2,329
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses36 / 39
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage51d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $779 $803 +$24 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $403 +$183 +46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$84 +82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $607 +$484 +80%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $458 −$451 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $304 +$307 +101%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $154 +$989 +643%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $499 +$227 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $168 −$166 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$374 +365%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $237 −$231 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 31? May 30 $211 −$200 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 30? May 30 $190 −$180 -95%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $499 +$540 +108%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $293 −$288 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $408 −$400 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $275 −$270 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 23? May 23 $349 −$330 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23? May 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $595 +$553 +93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? May 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 21 $107 −$100 -94%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $402 +$311 +77%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? May 21 $138 −$130 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $313 +$147 +47%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $406 +$458 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $446 +$357 +80%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $519 +$736 +142%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $998 +$170 +17%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $299 −$294 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 09 $41 −$40 -97%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 09 $305 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 09 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 09 $130 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 09 $52 +$85 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 09 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 09 $91 +$24 +26%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $400 +$342 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 08 $84 −$83 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $201 9m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $586 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $186 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 34h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $153 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 43h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $304 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $103 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,143 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,230.26 · official $1,230.26 (match) · 205 history records