Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dfe…09f1 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%27W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 61% 52% -11.2%
≤30d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 61% 52% -11.2%
≤90d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 61% 52% -11.2%
all 44 -8.7% -17.4% 61% 52% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 52% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 34% -19.7%
15% -32.5% 20% -27.4%
20% -39.1% 14% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses27 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$41 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $76 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$11 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$25 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $13 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records