Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dfc…f06f world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
politics 21% −$20
sports 18% +$10
other 15% $0
finance 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 63 -1.5% -10.9% 38% 5% -9.5%
all 68 -1.6% -11.0% 38% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage485d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 −$2 -25%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $81 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $119 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $105 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $17 +$3 +18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $72 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $37 −$4 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $41 +$2 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $35 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $36 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $68 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $69 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $86 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $34 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 59m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $34 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $34 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 26h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $37 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.57 · official $37.52 (match) · 272 history records