Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dfc…bfc0 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$4
other 23% +$1
politics 16% −$1
sports 10% $0
culture 5% +$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 12 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 0% -10.4%
all 47 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage277d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $43 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3 −$1 -19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $34 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $61 −$6 -10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 12 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $11 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $10 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 21 $3 $0 -8%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $34 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $36 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $36 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $18 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $8 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $5 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $30 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $35 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $34 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $21 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.20 · official $37.20 (match) · 154 history records