Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dfb…98b7 crypto 1718 markets active 1d ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$873 (-1%) realized −$873 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate88%1504W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$193
14 days−$391
30 days−$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -6.3% -15.3% 83% 53% -15.3%
≤30d 498 -3.5% -12.7% 86% 51% -12.7%
≤90d 1718 -1.7% -11.1% 88% 49% -11.1%
all 1718 -1.7% -11.1% 88% 49% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 49% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 6% -19.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$40 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$873
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1504 / 214
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1718 / 1718
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1718 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $40 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $40 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $40 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $40 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $40 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $40 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $40 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $40 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $40 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $40 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $40 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records