Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dfa…2dd7 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,708 (-45%) realized −$3,701 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$368
7 days−$484
14 days−$1,068
30 days−$2,050
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$3,306
sports 27% −$477
crypto 1% +$6
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -36.3% -42.3% 19% 19% -38.4%
≤30d 30 -35.0% -41.2% 27% 27% -49.1%
≤90d 49 -33.1% -39.4% 35% 29% -55.3%
all 49 -33.1% -39.4% 35% 29% -55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 29% -55.3%
10% -45.2% 22% -59.6%
15% -50.5% 18% -63.5%
20% -55.4% 18% -67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$144 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$771
Realized−$3,701
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage88d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $778 $771 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 22 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $202 −$1 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $203 −$5 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $308 −$13 -4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $83 −$83 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -26%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 +$7 +13%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$18 -88%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $302 −$257 -85%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 +$20 +101%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$12 -57%
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $116 −$62 -53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $296 −$292 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $189 +$107 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $112 +$115 +103%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $704 −$700 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$334 +109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +88%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,197 −$972 -81%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $403 +$116 +29%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,001 −$979 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $107 −$104 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $497 −$392 -79%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $30 −$29 -97%
Norway vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $80 −$38 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $65 +$11 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $71 +$10 +14%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $20 +$24 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 26 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 26 $45 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $788 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 47¢ $96 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 65¢ $201 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 55¢ $197 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $294 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $83 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 74¢ $57 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $51 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $45 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $302 16h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $41 17h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 22¢ $9 17h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $20 18h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 19h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $20 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 22h
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $4 34h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $26 34h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $20 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 36h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $14 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $41 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $55 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $116 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $296 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $771.42 · official $771.42 (match) · 88 history records