Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dfa…2235 weather 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$135 (-1%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day117.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 34% −$112
other 33% −$114
finance 19% −$42
world 6% −$11
sports 6% −$67
crypto 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -38.2% -44.1% 2% 2% -12.6%
≤30d 96 -38.2% -44.1% 2% 2% -12.6%
≤90d 96 -38.2% -44.1% 2% 2% -12.6%
all 96 -38.2% -44.1% 2% 2% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.1% 2% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -49.5% 2% -21.0%
15% -54.4% 0% -28.6%
20% -58.8% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -56% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage5d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day117.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $101 −$1 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,000 −$42 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $101 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $400 −$7 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $300 −$5 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $740 −$11 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $609 −$9 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1,000 −$18 -2%
Will Pete Hegseth attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $101 −$1 -1%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $93 −$3 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $10 −$2 -23%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $133 −$3 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $393 −$6 -2%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $108 $0 -0%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 16 $162 −$3 -2%
ITF Luque: Maria Herazo vs Agustina Soto Neira Jun 16 $124 −$4 -3%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $249 −$6 -2%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $161 −$52 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 16 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Cameron Smith finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $580 −$11 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 15 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 15 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 19? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 98¢ $99 1m
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 1m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 2m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 3m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 3m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 4m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 4m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 5m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 5m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 6m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 6m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 7m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 7m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 8m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 8m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $95 9m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 726 history records