Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1df9…d4f7 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-30%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$5
other 34% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.9% -28.4% 17% 17% -44.7%
≤30d 12 -20.9% -28.4% 17% 17% -44.7%
≤90d 12 -20.9% -28.4% 17% 17% -44.7%
all 12 -20.9% -28.4% 17% 17% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 17% -44.7%
10% -35.3% 17% -50.0%
15% -41.5% 17% -54.8%
20% -47.3% 17% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -83% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +362%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $11 −$10 -85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 39h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 15¢ $2 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 39h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 13¢ $10 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 17¢ $1 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 12¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.13 · official $4.13 (match) · 23 history records