Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1df8…5d8c
sports · 274 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$22 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$109
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses94 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions41
Markets (closed)233 / 274
History coverage890d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 41 History 233 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 13¢ 34¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+169%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 33¢ 43¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 60¢ 63¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 78¢ 83¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Yes 22¢ 15¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 78¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 50¢ 35¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+53%)
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? No 48¢ 51¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+45%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 46¢ 61¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $5 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +114%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$3 +109%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +33%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -98%
Alex Bolt vs. Keegan Smith: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $4 +$2 +60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 10 $6 +$5 +79%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Bolt vs Smith Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 +$3 +86%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +43%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 09 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $8 +$14 +177%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 34% +$27
politics 26% −$10
economics 17% −$9
other 17% +$9
world 3% +$4
culture 2% −$1
tech 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1 26m
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 27m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $2 27m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $2 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 46¢ $1 1h
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 39¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 26h
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? BUY No 48¢ $2 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 29h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 29h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 29h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 30h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 30h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 18¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 41% -10.9%
≤30d 59 -12.6% -20.9% 49% 41% -11.3%
≤90d 62 -13.6% -21.8% 48% 40% -12.6%
all 233 +1.8% -7.9% 40% 31% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 31% -9.5%
10% -16.7% 28% -18.1%
15% -24.7% 21% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 18% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.23 · official $109.23 (match) · 612 history records