Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1df6…12e4 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$7
other 12% $0
politics 11% $0
economics 9% $0
finance 8% −$27
crypto 3% $0
culture 0% −$2
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +2.3% -7.5% 33% 17% -9.0%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 14% -8.5%
all 32 -4.0% -13.2% 34% 9% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 9% -11.5%
10% -21.5% 3% -20.0%
15% -29.1% 3% -27.7%
20% -36.0% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage398d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $68 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $122 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $46 +$6 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $16 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mia Farrow win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $2 $0 +9%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $28 $0 +2%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 03 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $3 +$2 +98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
XRP above $2.70 on May 30? May 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 28 $25 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 25 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $58 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $58 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $33 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $20 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $53 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $20 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $53 2d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $59 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $59 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $0 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $0 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $10 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $8 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $35 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $26 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.63 · official $38.96 (match) · 120 history records