Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:55:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1df4…502e
other · 60 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$136 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$136 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Net worth$1
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses34 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage409d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? No 55¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025? Yes 38¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July? No 61¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July? No 51¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Biden diagnosed with prostate cancer while in office? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mix Feb 17 $10 +$12 +122%
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixed Feb 17 $20 +$34 +168%
Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" during WEF Address on January 2 Jan 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Aug 04 $1 −$1 -50%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Aug 04 $20 −$5 -25%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Aug 04 $41 −$13 -33%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July? Aug 01 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July? Aug 01 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July? Aug 01 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July? Jul 24 $20 −$20 -100%
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? Jul 18 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? Jul 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July? Jul 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025? Jul 04 $10 +$15 +151%
Iran strike on Qatar today? Jul 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump suspend habeas corpus before July? Jul 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July? Jun 29 $10 +$15 +145%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July? Jun 23 $8 +$6 +80%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July? Jun 23 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July? Jun 23 $52 +$124 +238%
Iran strike on Israel by Friday? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -64%
Will the Black Woman statue be removed from Times Square early? Jun 13 $2 +$20 +914%
Trump x Putin talk before July? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? Jun 05 $4 +$2 +43%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 01 $30 −$7 -24%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jun 01 $16 +$2 +11%
US military action on Yemen before June? May 25 $1 +$6 +512%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? May 24 $4 +$3 +77%
Biden diagnosed with prostate cancer while in office? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% next Friday? May 21 $5 +$2 +29%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 21 $15 +$3 +23%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? May 20 $14 +$5 +39%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? May 18 $20 +$3 +12%
Will Trump increase tariffs on Mexico before May? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before July? May 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Israel military action on Yemen by Friday? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025? May 15 $7 +$3 +37%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? May 10 $10 −$2 -21%
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May? May 06 $10 +$2 +16%
US recession in 2025? May 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? May 04 $7 +$9 +129%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? May 04 $10 $0 +4%
Israel military action on Yemen before June? May 04 $38 +$13 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
India military action against Pakistan before June? May 03 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$186
world 25% −$14
politics 19% −$31
finance 10% +$2
crypto 7% −$2
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly SELL Yes $0 115d
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $10 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down $1 116d
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixed BUY No 31¢ $10 123d
Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mix BUY Yes 45¢ $10 123d
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixed BUY No 47¢ $10 123d
Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" during WEF Address on January 2 BUY No 81¢ $10 144d
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? SELL Yes $1 313d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? SELL No 59¢ $15 313d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 313d
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July? BUY No 64¢ $20 319d
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July? BUY No 40¢ $10 325d
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 330d
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July? BUY No 60¢ $10 334d
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? BUY No 55¢ $10 334d
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July? BUY No 62¢ $10 334d
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July? BUY No 61¢ $10 334d
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July? BUY No 72¢ $10 334d
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 335d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY No 79¢ $20 338d
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025? SELL No 88¢ $25 344d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July? SELL No 98¢ $25 349d
Iran strike on Qatar today? BUY No 27¢ $20 355d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July? SELL No 90¢ $14 356d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July? SELL No 91¢ $25 356d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July? SELL No 81¢ $121 356d
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 358d
Iran strike on Israel by Friday? BUY No 32¢ $6 365d
Will the Black Woman statue be removed from Times Square early? SELL No 30¢ $5 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 59 +22.6% +10.9% 58% 47% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 47% +7.8%
10% +0.3% 41% -2.5%
15% -9.4% 31% -11.9%
20% -18.3% 25% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.83 (match) · 150 history records