Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1df2…a667 crypto 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%56W / 35L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$42
other 20% −$2
economics 10% −$1
politics 6% −$1
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 28 +0.0% -9.5% 54% 0% -9.5%
all 91 -0.6% -10.1% 62% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.35 per $1 lost it wins $5.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses56 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage229d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $133 $133 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $136 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? Jun 23 $136 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $136 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 27 $136 $0 +0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $136 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 14? May 21 $136 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 29? May 14 $136 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $136 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $136 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $271 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $136 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $136 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 21? Apr 23 $126 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $136 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 14? Apr 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 14? Apr 21 $82 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 7? Apr 14 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $136 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? Apr 02 $136 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $134 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $136 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 27 $136 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $136 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $235 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 24 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 21? Mar 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 18? Mar 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 13? Mar 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in March 2026? Mar 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? Mar 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $199 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 4? Mar 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? Mar 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 9 Mar 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY No 0¢ $3 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $135 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $136 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 26d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $136 26d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $136 33d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $136 33d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $136 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $136 40d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $136 40d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $136 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $136 55d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $136 55d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $136 57d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $136 57d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $136 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $136 60d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $136 60d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $136 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $126 63d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $136 63d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $136 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $54 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $82 70d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $136 70d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $136 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.47 · official $136.47 (match) · 211 history records